By: Edward Egros

Need Reasons Not to Pick Spieth at the Byron Nelson?

Pasted Graphic
Even the youngest of golf fans know how big of a favorite Jordan Spieth is at the Byron Nelson. Vegas odds have the Dallas native as a heavy favorite, he's the only golfer in the Top 20 in every Strokes Gained category except for putting (and putting is a volatile statistic), he's played at the tournament's new home at Trinity Forest a lot and the field is one of the weaker ones on the PGA Tour. In fact, only five of the Top 50 in the world will compete this weekend. Spieth is 3rd in the Official World Golf Rankings, by far the best in the field.

Then again, Spieth was also familiar with the tournament's old home at TPC Four Seasons and he failed to notch a Top 10 finish there. What makes Trinity Forest different is it's a links style, with wind playing a significant factor, no trees on the inside of the course—only outlining the exterior—and unusually large and detailed greens (this course even features one green with two holes). Because no PGA Tour event has been held here until now, there is no historical data to help determine who is likeliest to win. For my analysis, I am replacing course history with other links style courses, and wouldn't you know it? Jordan Spieth shines in this model too, the defending Open Champion with a 4th place finish in 2015 and a U.S. Open championship at Chambers Bay.

Here's one more perspective: as golf analyst
Mark Broadie points out, winners average about 35% of their total strokes gained from their approach shots. At a links style, it is possible that statistic inflates, what with handling the unique greens and unusual winds. Those playing this week who have better Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green numbers than Spieth are Scott Piercy and Sergio Garcia, who has handled other Texas tournaments well. There are a few players who could spoil Spieth's first win at this tournament, but it's hard to find them.

Here are my daily fantasy teams:

Jordan Spieth
Sergio Garcia
Robert Streb
J.J. Spaun
Hunter Mahan
Robert Garrigus

Adam Scott
Marc Leishman
Rory Sabbatini
Kevin Na
Scott Piercy
Bill Haas

One Personal Note About the Masters

Pasted Graphic
It seemed like Sunday offered the kind of drama befitting Jim Nantz's description: "the most anticipated Masters…in our lifetime". Jordan Spieth, a former winner capable of dominating Augusta at any moment, nearly shot a course record to complete what would have been the biggest comeback leading into the final round in Masters history. Patrick Reed, who began Sunday with a three-stroke advantage, stayed around his starting score while those nearest to him were crumbling. For a few moments, it seemed like Spieth was going to catch Reed and fulfill the mantra that anything is possible at golf's first major.

Emotions are one thing, statistics are another.

DataGolf calculated its own odds for who would win the Masters, stroke-by-stroke. Even as Jordan Spieth trimmed his deficit with each passing birdie, Patrick Reed remained a sizable favorite for a number of reasons. First, no one has ever shot a 62 at the Masters before; but a few have shot a 63 and a few more have carded a 64. Expecting something unprecedented should be statistically small. But even if Spieth had pulled off that feat and we assume nothing else would have changed in terms of Reed's game, a course record would have only tied Reed, so nothing gives Spieth an advantage to win.

Second, as Spieth was approaching the end of his round, Reed had several holes remaining. Though he was in the middle of Amen Corner which historically can be treacherous,
when Reed's ball sat up on the slope after his approach on the 13th hole, avoiding the water altogether, Reed avoided any major disaster that would have given Spieth an opportunity. Then, Reed had easier holes where he could card more birdies, including the Par-5 15th, where he even scored an eagle the day before.

Lastly, per ShotLink, Reed was already 24th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 41st in One-Putt Percentage, so nothing suggested one aspect of his game could cause a collapse, he would probably remain steady at worst—which is exactly what happened—Reed gained one shot en route to his first major championship.

There may have been wishful thinking by many Spieth would have completed the comeback, whether that come from fans of his, haters of Reed or consumers of incredible storylines. Often those emotions can have us thinking irrationally, that someone can do something that unprecedented. But those stoic statistics reminded us just how much of a longshot Spieth was to win, no matter how thrilling he made it seem. It's not that analytics should prevent us from enjoying the spectacle, but it should put in context what we are witnessing, as it might deceive us.

My 2018 Masters Pick Is...

Pasted Graphic
A couple of months ago, I gave a talk at SportCon, a sports analytics conference in Minneapolis. There, I discussed how I come up with my predictions specifically for golf's first major of the year. If you'd like to listen to the podcast, click here.

What was not touted was, since I began my research into sports analytics, I correctly predicted two of the last three winners at the Masters (Jordan Spieth in 2015 and Sergio Garcia in 2017). Danny Willett in 2016 plays on the European Tour and given his inexperience at Augusta National and my ongoing adjustments as to how European Tour statistics translate to American courses, I missed that result completely.

I will apply the tobit model mentioned in my presentation for my picks, but will also use simpler statistics to highlight what matters most. This year may pose more uncertainty because of the number of international players who are playing well (their statistics do not always translate easily to Augusta National) and so many big names are playing well. Since 2012—when statistics are available for the winners—every Masters champion was in the Top 5 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Also, since 2012, every winner was in the Top 16 in the
Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) going into the tournament.

First, let's address the tiger in the room. Tiger Woods has won more purse money than anyone except Phil Mickelson at Augusta National. In fact, he's won approximately $3.5 million more than third-place Jordan Spieth. While he has shown steady improvement leading up to this week, and while I am willing to disregard his OWGR of 103rd, it is more difficult to assume his total winnings are not some sort of an outlier when analyzing the data (more technically, that there would be a perfect linear relationship between winnings and likelihood of winning the next tournament with the uppermost points that are substantially higher than everyone else). Tiger may play exceptionally well, but given he hasn't played since 2015, he remains a risky choice.

The aforementioned statistics do bode well for defending champion Sergio Garcia. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, has three Top 10 finishes this season and historically has played well, finally putting it all together in a playoff victory. Even the player he beat in that playoff, Justin Rose, could earn a green jacket. Not only has he finished 2nd in two of his last three tries, in a dozen career appearances, Rose has finished in the Top 25 nearly every time and made the cut every time. One more honorable mention who grades highly is Adam Scott, the 2013 winner of this event. Though he has not been in contention in any of his seven events, he's had a relatively consistent game and a sterling history in majors.

But this year, my pick to win is Jordan Spieth. Yes, while his putting used to be a strength of his, it has now become problematic. In the three previous years at the time of the Masters, Spieth's Tour ranks for Strokes Gained: Putting were 39th, 17th and 5th. This time,
he's tied for 185th, missing several short putts throughout the year. However, my model classifies Strokes Gained: Putting as an insignificant variable because of the variability of the metric. More specifically, a golfer may look like a worse putter because the putts are much tougher, not because of ability. Also, Spieth says an illness during the offseason completely threw off his schedule, so he knew he would need additional time to have his game where he wants it.

In four appearances, Jordan Spieth has finished second, first, second and 11th. He ranks third in the history of the tournament in total winnings in just those four appearances. Currently, all three components of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
rank in the Top 20 on Tour. If you believe in momentum, Spieth had his best finish of the year last week, tied for 3rd at the Houston Open. He finished tied for 2nd at that same tournament when he captured his first green jacket. It looks like he could claim his second in just a few days.

For those who assemble Daily Fantasy lineups, here are the two I am submitting:

Jordan Spieth
Paul Casey
Sergio Garcia
Kevin Chappell
Ian Poulter
Matt Kuchar

Bubba Watson
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Reed
Justin Rose
Adam Scott
Henrik Stenson

Prelude to the Masters

Pasted Graphic 1The uniqueness of the Shell Houston Open is not so much the course itself, but its timing. Some of the top players skip the event altogether so they can focus solely on next week's Masters, some may very well use the event as a tune-up, vying less for the win and more for retooling and some are playing this event to win. There are some players with a lot of success at this event, notably Phil Mickelson, Russell Henley and Henrik Stenson. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green and Approach-the-Green all have predictive value; in fact, when looking at the last 50 Top 5 finishers, the majority were all in the Top 50 in the second pair of statistics. Given this information, here are my Daily Fantasy Lineups:

Keegan Bradley
Tony Finau
Luke List
Ryan Palmer
Kevin Streelman
Jhonattan Vegas

Chesson Hadley
Phil Mickelson
Henrik Stenson
Scott Piercy
Chez Reavie
Nick Watney

Tiger's Best Chance

Pasted Graphic
With the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the horizon, it is easy to forget: it is still golf.

At the Valspar Championship, Tiger Woods had his best finish in five years and was one stroke away from forcing a playoff. Clearly, he is on an uptick, and seemingly it's only a matter of time before he ends his five-year drought and captures a victory. His last win was the WGC: Bridgestone Invitational.

Two victories before that? The Arnold Palmer Invitational.

One of the more significant factors for winning at Bay Hill is past success. When charting Top 5 finishes the last several years, names like Henrik Stenson and Zach Johnson come up multiple times. But as for Tiger, he has won there eight times in his career, including four times in the past decade. Even years when Tiger was slumping by his abnormal standards, he could often count on a win during the Florida portion of the schedule.

These reasons are enough for me to include him in my Daily Fantasy Lineups for this week. When including the significance of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green:

Tiger Woods
Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott
Scott Piercy
Kevin Chappell
Kevin Streelman

Tommy Fleetwood
Alex Noren
Keegan Bradley
Charles Howell III
Luke List
Jason Kokrak

P.S.: A reality check.

As I posited
in an earlier post, the field is tougher now than it was when Tiger was dominating. In fact, last week's Valspar Championship could be proof of this idea: Paul Casey shot a final-round 65 to win by one stroke. As explained in that post, if you assume a stellar golfer gives up a full stroke when Tiger is in the field, Casey would have found himself in a playoff with Tiger, and the probability there gives a massive edge to Woods. Casey had not captured a victory in nine years, so to surge to the top of the leaderboard with one round suggests the sizable number of golfers capable of winning any given weekend.

Just because Tiger is on an uptick does not necessarily mean it is a straight line and he is guaranteed to win at Bay Hill. A lot is working in his favor, but every elite golfer stumbles at some point. It is still golf.