By: Edward Egros

Jun 2016

Yes! Go for Two!

unknownIt's an odd feeling for football fans. After scoring a touchdown, the exhilaration must be contained just as quickly as it erupted, as this same offense, grinding down the field and travailing through the defensive puzzles presented, decides to go for two. The decision is rare: during the 2015 NFL season, 1,217 extra points were attempted, but only 94 times did a team go for two (7%). In fact, five teams never attempted a two-point conversion.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suggested this week his team should go for two, every time. Though his team attempted more two-point tries than anyone else, fewer than one-fourth of the time did the Steeler offense return to the field after a touchdown.

Traditionally, this idea is irreverent. But analytically, this idea carries merit. Because 94% of extra points were converted last year, if a team always goes for two, they only need to convert 47% of the time to push. It is worth noting, a defense can return the football the length of the field for two points no matter what is being attempted. Though this happened only once and during an extra point, it could fractionally affect this expected value even if it statistically insignificant. Lifetime, teams convert their two-point attempts roughly 50% of the time, almost exactly what they need for it to be a push.

So why always go for two if it is a push and risk injury to more valuable players? And, perhaps more importantly, would this 50% success rate hold if teams went for two more frequently? Aside from the fact there is an obvious trend NFL offenses are improving and kickers are worsening (mainly because the distance of an extra point was moved back 15 yards), the following chart illustrates two-point tries:

Pasted Graphic

As expected, the 50% success rate remains relatively consistent regardless of how many times teams go for two. However, as stated before, this is a small sample size compared with the number of times a team could have gone for two, but elected for the extra point. Usually teams go for two when almost absolutely necessary. When it is not absolutely necessary, will the success rate be the same?

It's worth finding out.