By: Edward Egros

Mar 2018

Tiger's Best Chance

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With the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the horizon, it is easy to forget: it is still golf.

At the Valspar Championship, Tiger Woods had his best finish in five years and was one stroke away from forcing a playoff. Clearly, he is on an uptick, and seemingly it's only a matter of time before he ends his five-year drought and captures a victory. His last win was the WGC: Bridgestone Invitational.

Two victories before that? The Arnold Palmer Invitational.

One of the more significant factors for winning at Bay Hill is past success. When charting Top 5 finishes the last several years, names like Henrik Stenson and Zach Johnson come up multiple times. But as for Tiger, he has won there eight times in his career, including four times in the past decade. Even years when Tiger was slumping by his abnormal standards, he could often count on a win during the Florida portion of the schedule.

These reasons are enough for me to include him in my Daily Fantasy Lineups for this week. When including the significance of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green:

Tiger Woods
Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott
Scott Piercy
Kevin Chappell
Kevin Streelman

Tommy Fleetwood
Alex Noren
Keegan Bradley
Charles Howell III
Luke List
Jason Kokrak

P.S.: A reality check.

As I posited
in an earlier post, the field is tougher now than it was when Tiger was dominating. In fact, last week's Valspar Championship could be proof of this idea: Paul Casey shot a final-round 65 to win by one stroke. As explained in that post, if you assume a stellar golfer gives up a full stroke when Tiger is in the field, Casey would have found himself in a playoff with Tiger, and the probability there gives a massive edge to Woods. Casey had not captured a victory in nine years, so to surge to the top of the leaderboard with one round suggests the sizable number of golfers capable of winning any given weekend.

Just because Tiger is on an uptick does not necessarily mean it is a straight line and he is guaranteed to win at Bay Hill. A lot is working in his favor, but every elite golfer stumbles at some point. It is still golf.

A Lesson in Mexico

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Even though golf did not give me anything in return after not cashing with either of my fantasy teams last week, golf gave a lot to Phil Mickelson. He won at the WGC: Mexico Championship, in a playoff, against arguably the hottest golfer at that moment, Justin Thomas.

What's more important is Lefty had not won an event in almost five years (his last victory was the 2013 Open Championship). Because of that drought, it might make sense for several daily fantasy players not to pick Mickelson. This game is more than just picking successful players and stellar lineups, it is about picking golfers who others do not think will play well. Sometimes prices will reflect these trends, but many times they will not, and those are the moments DFS players should try and seize when putting together lineups. It is something I hope I can refine as I move forward.

This week is the Valspar Championship. It is more of a shotmaker's course, so heavy-hitters may not be favored. However, looking at top performers over the last ten years, there did not seem to be discernible trends when it came to the perfect Strokes Gained statistic, though Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green did seem to have some predictive value. More specifically, a player largely could not rank poorly in either metric.

These teams are designed to have a mix of those who perform at least adequately well in the aforementioned statistics, those who have performed well at the Valspar Championship before and who may not be chosen frequently by others:

Jordan Spieth
Chez Reavie
Keegan Bradley
Adam Hadwin
Chesson Hadley
Chris Kirk

Sergio Garcia
Nick Watney
Adam Scott
Charles Howell III
Kevin Streelman
Webb Simpson