By: Edward Egros

My 2018 Masters Pick Is...

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A couple of months ago, I gave a talk at SportCon, a sports analytics conference in Minneapolis. There, I discussed how I come up with my predictions specifically for golf's first major of the year. If you'd like to listen to the podcast, click here.

What was not touted was, since I began my research into sports analytics, I correctly predicted two of the last three winners at the Masters (Jordan Spieth in 2015 and Sergio Garcia in 2017). Danny Willett in 2016 plays on the European Tour and given his inexperience at Augusta National and my ongoing adjustments as to how European Tour statistics translate to American courses, I missed that result completely.

I will apply the tobit model mentioned in my presentation for my picks, but will also use simpler statistics to highlight what matters most. This year may pose more uncertainty because of the number of international players who are playing well (their statistics do not always translate easily to Augusta National) and so many big names are playing well. Since 2012—when statistics are available for the winners—every Masters champion was in the Top 5 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Also, since 2012, every winner was in the Top 16 in the
Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) going into the tournament.

First, let's address the tiger in the room. Tiger Woods has won more purse money than anyone except Phil Mickelson at Augusta National. In fact, he's won approximately $3.5 million more than third-place Jordan Spieth. While he has shown steady improvement leading up to this week, and while I am willing to disregard his OWGR of 103rd, it is more difficult to assume his total winnings are not some sort of an outlier when analyzing the data (more technically, that there would be a perfect linear relationship between winnings and likelihood of winning the next tournament with the uppermost points that are substantially higher than everyone else). Tiger may play exceptionally well, but given he hasn't played since 2015, he remains a risky choice.

The aforementioned statistics do bode well for defending champion Sergio Garcia. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, has three Top 10 finishes this season and historically has played well, finally putting it all together in a playoff victory. Even the player he beat in that playoff, Justin Rose, could earn a green jacket. Not only has he finished 2nd in two of his last three tries, in a dozen career appearances, Rose has finished in the Top 25 nearly every time and made the cut every time. One more honorable mention who grades highly is Adam Scott, the 2013 winner of this event. Though he has not been in contention in any of his seven events, he's had a relatively consistent game and a sterling history in majors.

But this year, my pick to win is Jordan Spieth. Yes, while his putting used to be a strength of his, it has now become problematic. In the three previous years at the time of the Masters, Spieth's Tour ranks for Strokes Gained: Putting were 39th, 17th and 5th. This time,
he's tied for 185th, missing several short putts throughout the year. However, my model classifies Strokes Gained: Putting as an insignificant variable because of the variability of the metric. More specifically, a golfer may look like a worse putter because the putts are much tougher, not because of ability. Also, Spieth says an illness during the offseason completely threw off his schedule, so he knew he would need additional time to have his game where he wants it.

In four appearances, Jordan Spieth has finished second, first, second and 11th. He ranks third in the history of the tournament in total winnings in just those four appearances. Currently, all three components of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
rank in the Top 20 on Tour. If you believe in momentum, Spieth had his best finish of the year last week, tied for 3rd at the Houston Open. He finished tied for 2nd at that same tournament when he captured his first green jacket. It looks like he could claim his second in just a few days.

For those who assemble Daily Fantasy lineups, here are the two I am submitting:

Jordan Spieth
Paul Casey
Sergio Garcia
Kevin Chappell
Ian Poulter
Matt Kuchar

Bubba Watson
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Reed
Justin Rose
Adam Scott
Henrik Stenson