By: Edward Egros

2017 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

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Another installment of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference has come and gone. More than 3,500 were estimated attending the proceedings, learning and offering their latest research in the sports analytics world. While football and basketball are often the most popular sports here, there seemed to be a noticeable effort to highlight the quantitative strides made in other sports.

One panel featured golf analytics, led by Golfweek's
David Dusek, who highlighted the success stories of these quantitative tools. Jeff Price, Chief Commercial Officer of the PGA, offered an example of Team USA at the Ryder Cup. At Hazeltine National Golf Club, long par 5's meant emphasizing wedge play. It's this discovery that helped the Stars and Stripes to a decisive 17-11 victory.

On a more personal level, current professional golfer Jason Gore explained how to turn research into actionable results.

"When I talked to a sports psychologist, Fred Astaire would [practice and] put chalk on the floor," said Gore. "But once he grabbed Ginger's hand, he never thought about the chalk on the floor."

There is still room for growth.

"We're in the first inning of the data revolution in golf," said
Arccos Golf CEO Sal Syed.

Dusek pointed out some major tournaments like the Masters and United States Open still do not provide the media with advanced statistics.
15th Club CEO Blake Wooster says the potential is there to analyze how golfers perform under pressure. Lastly, the group seemed to agree lasers should be used to measure distance more accurately. Even Gore believed lasers used by caddies could speed up pace of play.

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The seminal football panel of this year's conference was unabashedly endorsing the concepts of its own sport's analytic revolution. It was even subtitled "Please Stop Punting", a concept where going for it on 4th down
yields more expected points and discounts a more traditional idea valuing field position.

Almost immediately, Baltimore Ravens offensive lineman John Urschel, who is pursuing a Ph.D. in mathematics from MIT, discussed a common situation he says coaches get wrong. When a team trails by 14 late in a game and score a touchdown, he says it is better to go for two than kick the extra point. The reasoning is, two points essentially give you the win with another touchdown, but even if unsuccessful, you can go for two again and achieve a tie, and because most teams convert two-point attempts 50% of the time, you are at least giving yourself a better chance at winning, with a small chance at needing a third score of some kind.

Mike Lombardi, former football executive and current analyst for Fox Sports, says analytics help with time allocation throughout the week, knowing what coaches should communicate with players and which statistics are important in determining the outcome of a game, such as 3rd down red zone defense.

"You don't establish the run, you establish the lead," said Lombardi. "Teams with the lead at halftime frequently go on to win," citing last year's Super Bowl champion Patriots as the top team with wins after leading at halftime, then citing the second-place team, the Super Bowl runner-up Falcons. The players, which included former Patriot Tedy Bruschi, explained how halftime is all about adjustments, but that they should take fewer than five minutes to implement.

From a front office perspective, analytics can help decipher if trading players and draft picks make fiscal and qualitative sense.

"The toughest thing to do in sports is to know what you're trading. It's why the Patriots won't trade [backup quarterback] Jimmy Garoppolo," said Lombardi.

Football discussion was not confined just to that panel. A couple of talks featured fantasy football and if there are things to give analytic players an advantage. Here are some tips from Tauhid Zaman, the KDD Career Development Professor in Communications and Technology at MIT, and Renee Miller, a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester:

- When picking a quarterback, get one or two of his receivers as well.

- Avoid players who cancel each other out, like a defense against one of your offensive players.

- We weigh football players' performances at the start of the year too heavily. Instead, looking at the bigger picture of their performance.

- Be careful of overconfidence: "The more data we have, the more confident we become in our decision making."

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Lastly, in basketball, while guys like Luis Scola seemed to get most of the attention from hoops fans, maybe the most direct knowledge given came from Seth Partnow, Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks. In his talk, "Truths and Myths of the Three Point Revolution in Basketball," Partnow offered the following bulletpoints:

- Defensive three-point shooting percentage is a useless stat because of the noise involved (good defenses prevent the shot).

- Long range shots in the NBA do not lead to fast breaks, it's shots around the rim that cause these.

- Ten of the last 12 NBA champions ranked in the top ten in three-point shooting.

As robust as this research might be, it does not offer a glimpse into the future of basketball analytics. However, one panel discussed solely how the sport will evolve thanks to quantitative tools. There may still be blowback from coaches and those who approach the sport more traditionally.

"When you're working with the [NBA] Draft…you end up trying to convince coaches," said Dean Oliver, a statistician who worked in the front offices of the Sacramento Kings, Seattle SuperSonics and Denver Nuggets. "You don't expect to win 100% of these arguments and that's fine."

Using analytics, a couple of panelists offered simple suggestions for improving the game. Former NBA player and coach Vinny Del Negro wants the league to add a fourth referee because the pace of the game has gone up and it is getting tougher for officials to keep up. WNBA point guard Sue Bird wants to get rid of the shootaround because of the rest players need and the lack of proof shooters develop a rhythm because of this routine. She also wants the analytics to assist in the psychology of a team.

"If I were a general manager, I'd want to know if [players] retain information well and how they handle things under pressure," said Bird.

The flexibility of these tools, spanning different sports and perhaps different fields of expertise, perhaps proves why this conference has lasted as long as it has.

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(All photos courtesy of Sloan Sports Analytics Conference).