By: Edward Egros

4th

Who Do You Trust in the 4th Quarter?

Pasted GraphicSince being named the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, Tony Romo has been in the NFL spotlight for ten seasons and 127 games. While he has put up some of the more prolific statistics of any quarterback during this time, many argue he is the most scrutinized veteran gunslinger in the 21st century. One reason is anti-analytical: blown opportunities to win games in the 4th quarter. While many of these games have been the most critical for his team's championship aspirations, it does bring up the bigger question of which quarterbacks have been the most reliable for winning a game in the 4th quarter.

In a later article we will apply analytics and look at what constitutes a "clutch" quarterback. But first, let's look at the raw statistics. The data features 42 quarterbacks spanning all eras of the NFL but who can be considered, at a minimum, marginally successful (e.g. Peyton Manning, Warren Moon, Roger Staubach, Colin Kaepernick, etc.). The 4th quarter variables are: comeback attempts, comeback wins, comeback rate and career blown leads by the QB's own defense.

First, here is a graph of the comeback success rates:

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Of the quarterbacks analyzed, Andrew Luck has the best 4th quarter comeback rate of anyone (63%). However, he also had the fewest attempts, so it is too soon to call him the most clutch we have ever seen. In second place is Joe Montana (56%), who many might be more willing to admit is the best in close games. Peyton Manning had the most attempts of anyone (94), but his rate is 47%.

Then comes the aforementioned Tony Romo. His rate matches is only slightly worse than Manning's. While it is below half, only five of the 42 quarterbacks studied finished better than 50%. In fact, Romo's rate is 11th best out of 42. At the other end, the worst rate among active quarterbacks belongs to Aaron Rodgers (27%). Don Meredith has the lowest success rate of anyone at 25%.

Some of these rates can be explained by analyzing blown leads by that quarterback's defense:


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The quarterback dealt the least clutch defense is Drew Brees, where on 31 occasions, his "D" has blown a 4th quarter lead. Fran Tarkenton ranks second with 27. Tony Romo is tied for 10th with 17. This mark is slightly above the average among the 42 quarterback studied. As for those who have fewer reasons to be upset with their defense, there is Kurt Warner (6) and, as expected, Andrew Luck (2).

Visually and expectedly, there is already a direct correlation between 4th quarter comeback rates and blown leads by defense. Still, it is worth discovering if there are statistics for each quarterback that can help explain why some successful quarterbacks are better than others at the end of football games. I will report my findings in a future article.

Special thanks to Mark Lane for putting this data together. You can follow him on Twitter
@therealmarklane.