By: Edward Egros

Daily

My 2018 Masters Pick Is...

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A couple of months ago, I gave a talk at SportCon, a sports analytics conference in Minneapolis. There, I discussed how I come up with my predictions specifically for golf's first major of the year. If you'd like to listen to the podcast, click here.

What was not touted was, since I began my research into sports analytics, I correctly predicted two of the last three winners at the Masters (Jordan Spieth in 2015 and Sergio Garcia in 2017). Danny Willett in 2016 plays on the European Tour and given his inexperience at Augusta National and my ongoing adjustments as to how European Tour statistics translate to American courses, I missed that result completely.

I will apply the tobit model mentioned in my presentation for my picks, but will also use simpler statistics to highlight what matters most. This year may pose more uncertainty because of the number of international players who are playing well (their statistics do not always translate easily to Augusta National) and so many big names are playing well. Since 2012—when statistics are available for the winners—every Masters champion was in the Top 5 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Also, since 2012, every winner was in the Top 16 in the
Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) going into the tournament.

First, let's address the tiger in the room. Tiger Woods has won more purse money than anyone except Phil Mickelson at Augusta National. In fact, he's won approximately $3.5 million more than third-place Jordan Spieth. While he has shown steady improvement leading up to this week, and while I am willing to disregard his OWGR of 103rd, it is more difficult to assume his total winnings are not some sort of an outlier when analyzing the data (more technically, that there would be a perfect linear relationship between winnings and likelihood of winning the next tournament with the uppermost points that are substantially higher than everyone else). Tiger may play exceptionally well, but given he hasn't played since 2015, he remains a risky choice.

The aforementioned statistics do bode well for defending champion Sergio Garcia. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, has three Top 10 finishes this season and historically has played well, finally putting it all together in a playoff victory. Even the player he beat in that playoff, Justin Rose, could earn a green jacket. Not only has he finished 2nd in two of his last three tries, in a dozen career appearances, Rose has finished in the Top 25 nearly every time and made the cut every time. One more honorable mention who grades highly is Adam Scott, the 2013 winner of this event. Though he has not been in contention in any of his seven events, he's had a relatively consistent game and a sterling history in majors.

But this year, my pick to win is Jordan Spieth. Yes, while his putting used to be a strength of his, it has now become problematic. In the three previous years at the time of the Masters, Spieth's Tour ranks for Strokes Gained: Putting were 39th, 17th and 5th. This time,
he's tied for 185th, missing several short putts throughout the year. However, my model classifies Strokes Gained: Putting as an insignificant variable because of the variability of the metric. More specifically, a golfer may look like a worse putter because the putts are much tougher, not because of ability. Also, Spieth says an illness during the offseason completely threw off his schedule, so he knew he would need additional time to have his game where he wants it.

In four appearances, Jordan Spieth has finished second, first, second and 11th. He ranks third in the history of the tournament in total winnings in just those four appearances. Currently, all three components of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
rank in the Top 20 on Tour. If you believe in momentum, Spieth had his best finish of the year last week, tied for 3rd at the Houston Open. He finished tied for 2nd at that same tournament when he captured his first green jacket. It looks like he could claim his second in just a few days.

For those who assemble Daily Fantasy lineups, here are the two I am submitting:

Jordan Spieth
Paul Casey
Sergio Garcia
Kevin Chappell
Ian Poulter
Matt Kuchar

Bubba Watson
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Reed
Justin Rose
Adam Scott
Henrik Stenson

Prelude to the Masters

Pasted Graphic 1The uniqueness of the Shell Houston Open is not so much the course itself, but its timing. Some of the top players skip the event altogether so they can focus solely on next week's Masters, some may very well use the event as a tune-up, vying less for the win and more for retooling and some are playing this event to win. There are some players with a lot of success at this event, notably Phil Mickelson, Russell Henley and Henrik Stenson. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green and Approach-the-Green all have predictive value; in fact, when looking at the last 50 Top 5 finishers, the majority were all in the Top 50 in the second pair of statistics. Given this information, here are my Daily Fantasy Lineups:

Keegan Bradley
Tony Finau
Luke List
Ryan Palmer
Kevin Streelman
Jhonattan Vegas

Chesson Hadley
Phil Mickelson
Henrik Stenson
Scott Piercy
Chez Reavie
Nick Watney

Tiger's Best Chance

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With the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the horizon, it is easy to forget: it is still golf.

At the Valspar Championship, Tiger Woods had his best finish in five years and was one stroke away from forcing a playoff. Clearly, he is on an uptick, and seemingly it's only a matter of time before he ends his five-year drought and captures a victory. His last win was the WGC: Bridgestone Invitational.

Two victories before that? The Arnold Palmer Invitational.

One of the more significant factors for winning at Bay Hill is past success. When charting Top 5 finishes the last several years, names like Henrik Stenson and Zach Johnson come up multiple times. But as for Tiger, he has won there eight times in his career, including four times in the past decade. Even years when Tiger was slumping by his abnormal standards, he could often count on a win during the Florida portion of the schedule.

These reasons are enough for me to include him in my Daily Fantasy Lineups for this week. When including the significance of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green:

Tiger Woods
Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott
Scott Piercy
Kevin Chappell
Kevin Streelman

Tommy Fleetwood
Alex Noren
Keegan Bradley
Charles Howell III
Luke List
Jason Kokrak

P.S.: A reality check.

As I posited
in an earlier post, the field is tougher now than it was when Tiger was dominating. In fact, last week's Valspar Championship could be proof of this idea: Paul Casey shot a final-round 65 to win by one stroke. As explained in that post, if you assume a stellar golfer gives up a full stroke when Tiger is in the field, Casey would have found himself in a playoff with Tiger, and the probability there gives a massive edge to Woods. Casey had not captured a victory in nine years, so to surge to the top of the leaderboard with one round suggests the sizable number of golfers capable of winning any given weekend.

Just because Tiger is on an uptick does not necessarily mean it is a straight line and he is guaranteed to win at Bay Hill. A lot is working in his favor, but every elite golfer stumbles at some point. It is still golf.

Entering the Daily Fantasy Zone

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This adventurous soul of a webmaster is embarking on a new quest: Daily Fantasy Golf. Over at least the next few weeks, I will submit two teams of six players to a Daily Fantasy Golf website in the hopes of determining if my models have enough predictive power to finish "in the money" with enough frequency to make a profit. Though I am not spending any money of significance, I am keeping track of where each team finishes and what prizes come about.

If you are not familiar with Daily Fantasy Golf, each user has $50,000 to spend on six golfers competing in that week's tournament. Each golfer has a price and it is up to the user to find the best combination of golfers with the best finishing order at the end of the final round, all while not exceeding that $50,000 limit.

I began with the Genesis Open, and though one of my teams had all six players make the cut, no money was earned. Then I assembled teams for the Honda Classic, focusing primarily on Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. One team of Justin Thomas, Alex Noren and others did finish "in the green". Winners of this event in the past have excelled in those statistics.

This week, the scene is the WGC-Mexico Championship. This tournament proves to be particularly tricky to predict if only because this is just the second time the World Golf Championships have been to Club de Golf Chapultepec. The elevation is high, the air is thin, the length is only 7,330 yards but heavy hitters like Dustin Johnson were successful last year. With a combination of players with high finishes the last few weeks, those excelling with their iron shots (proximity to the hole) and those who are dominant in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, here are my teams:

Justin Thomas
Kevin Chappell
Francesco Molinari
Brendan Steele
Xander Schauffele
Webb Simpson

Tommy Fleetwood
Chez Reavie
Paul Casey
Alex Noren
Patton Kizzire
Charley Hoffman