By: Edward Egros


Who Wins the FedExCup?

The PGA Tour will award its tenth FedExCup by week's end. This event has not attracted the same fanfare as majors or even other regular tournaments. The TOUR Championship is held during football season, has only been around for a decade and has a scoring system that has changed even in that short window. Still, with $10,000,000 in bonus money on the line for the winner and the best players of the season in the field, it is worth the exercise of predicting this year's champion.

Historically, there has been little fluctuation when it comes to who wins the FedExCup, based upon his ranking the prior week:

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Seven out of nine winners were ranked 5th or better heading into the final tournament. This trend bodes well for Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Adam Scott. However, seven out of nine won the tournament and went on to capture the cup, so much of this prediction exercise involves who will win at East Lake Golf Club just as much as it does forecasting the rankings afterwards.

The course has a par 70, uses Bermudagrass and is 7,385 yards long. Last year, it was ranked the 17th toughest course by score, out of 52 tournaments (and again, this tournament features only the top 30 ranked players in the FedExCup standings). As for more specific statistics compared with the rest of the Tour:

Driving Distance: 12th shortest (284.2)
Sand Save Percentage: 14th best (53.49%)
Greens in Regulation Percentage: 13th worst (62.1%)
Putting Average: 42nd best (1.742)

So far, nothing suggests this course has unique attributes that golfers have to make major adjustments for. The next step is looking at the strokes gained statistics for the last nine winners of the golf tournament, prior to the BMW Championship:

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Winning this tournament seems to require a complete game, though occasionally winners have had negatives strokes gained statistics in putting or driving. This idea does not necessarily eliminate anyone's chances. However, nearly all of them have needed good to great approach games, which is good news for Adam Scott (1st in SG: Approach the Green) and Hideki Matsuyama (2nd).

Often times the winner has also had a stellar World Golf Ranking, which suggests Jason Day or Dustin Johnson could win everything. Five golfers can win the TOUR Championship and hoist the FedExCup without requiring any help thanks to their point totals: Johnson, Scott, Day, Reed and Paul Casey. Given how important momentum can be for winning any golf tournament, these golfers have many reasons to feel confident about their chances.

This idea is furthered when analyzing how much of an advantage the higher-ranked players have heading into the tournament, relative to the rest of the field. Consider this: after the BMW Championship, a player's points are reset to a new number based upon his ranking (to see the updated point totals,
click here). Resetting scores gives everyone a chance to win the FedExCup, even though it wipes away any commanding leads a golfer may have had leading up to the TOUR Championship. The points earned for where a player finishes at the TOUR Championship can be found here.

One way to look at the probability each golfer has for winning the FedExCup is to look at how resetting points improves or worsens each golfer's chances. The most critical assumption in this exercise is every golfer is of the same quality and has the same abilities, so everyone has an equal opportunity to win; their probability to win the TOUR Championship is 1/30, or 3.33%. But to calculate their chances of winning the FedExCup, after resetting points, requires a more rigorous approach. Using
Monte Carlo simulation, I ran 5,000 tournaments and looked at how many times each golfer finished with the highest point total. Their probabilities can be found here:

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As expected, the lower the ranking, the worse the probability. Also as expected, if you were to draw a function to fit these points, it would be logarithmic (the R^2 is .9536 suggests this function captures almost all of the variation). Dustin Johnson has a significantly better probability to win than second-place golfer Patrick Reed. After Reed, the variation levels off. Still, in this exercise, golfers ranked 1st thru 8th have a better probability of winning than if points were completely erased, and whoever won the TOUR Championship also won the FedExCup.

No matter if you are computing probabilities using golfers of similar skill set, glimpsing at historical results or looking at abilities using advanced quantitative measures, the lesson is clear: likely looking at the top of the points list is where you will find this year's season-long champion.