By: Edward Egros

graphics

A New Explanation of Cowboys Graphics

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For the second-straight year, after every Dallas Cowboys game, I will post a recap of the game with an analytic visualization. Once again, these metrics sum up all of the important factors that determine the outcome of a football game. Some of the metrics are the same, while others are more refined and better reflect certain concepts.

Going from the top and working down, once again I will chart turnovers, one of the more impactful statistics in the game. The numbers reflect the turnover margin and the bars reflect how many turnovers were committed.

The next box will look at how the quarterbacks performed, often looking at
net yards per pass attempt. This metric is highly predictive; and while others may be more predictive, it is also far easier to calculate.

Perhaps the biggest change comes where it is labeled "Time of Possession/Rushing Yards". This metric was designed to determine who "controlled" the game. It has since been updated to look at how many rushing yards a team had per quarter.
As noted in a previous blog post, the more rushing yards a team scores later in the game, the likelier they are to win. The larger the number, the better that team "controlled" the game.

Overachiever/Underachiever refers to what the Cowboys' record should be, relative to their point differential for the whole season. In baseball, this idea is referred to as the
Pythagorean Expectation. In football, there is debate as to how to calculate such a record, but here, the exponent is 2.37: ((Points for^2.37) / (Points for^2.37 + Points Against^2.37)) * 16.

Finally, scoring efficiency has been tweaked. The idea here is to see how many points teams scored, relative to the number of yards they needed. The larger the bar and the bigger the number, the more efficient the team was. Simply put, it's points divided by yards, then multiplied by 15.457886 so that average is approximately 1. Using data from 2009-2016, we can also see if a team was overall good, average or bad in its efficiency. If the result is less than .949394, the team was inefficient. If the result is between .949395 and 1.057116, the team was average and gets a blue bar. If the result is greater than the aforementioned range, they were efficient and get a green bar.

Again, these metrics are meant to capture nearly everything that happened in a game that pertained to the result. Some of these metrics can also be used to forecast future games, but the intent is solely inference.