By: Edward Egros

hadwin

Are We Witnessing the Best Golf Ever?

Last January, Adam Hadwin shot a 13-under 59 at the CareerBuilder Challenge in California. Though it’s a dream scorecard, sub-60 is no longer a rarity. Just in the week prior, Justin Thomas posted a 59 at the Sony Open. Last August, Jim Furyk carded 58 at the Travelers Championship. Of the nine sub-60 round in PGA Tour history, three of them have happened in the span of roughly six months, out of 87 years of pro golf (in more than 1.5 million rounds of play, last I counted).

Because the odds are infinitesimally small these low rounds are by chance, it is safe to say golfers are improving. Equipment, athletic ability and coaching all play a part. But with several months left in the season, can we predict, right now, we are about to witness the best golf ever played?

Let’s first consider scoring average over the last 20 years, specifically, the median scoring on Tour:

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We had been seeing a significant decline in scoring beginning in 2007—with some fluctuation—but overall lower figures as recently as last year; however, so far this season, an uptick. What makes the higher median score so interesting is how much easier the early tournaments are, compared with the rest of the schedule.

Even for individual seasons, it will be difficult for anyone to match what Tiger Woods accomplished in 2000 and 2007. In both years, he finished with the lowest scoring and adjusted scoring average, ever, with a 67.79. This year, after the CareerBuilder Challenge and all of those historically low scores, even with the 59’s, the lowest scoring average was 68.715, roughly one stroke worse than Tiger’s.

Of course, devious course designers can always stay one step ahead and adjust conditions to keep scores from approaching zero (e.g. Tiger-proofing). Other statistics could better highlight if today’s golfers are indeed the best ever. However, metrics off the tee like driving distance has remained relatively steady over the last several years, though some tournaments show professional golfers are becoming more aggressive than ever before.

Where there might be significant improvement involves the less glamorous approaches and short game. Though the top Greens in Regulation percentages have hovered around 72% each season, this year the best is 75.69%, held by Jordan Spieth. More golfers can finish a hole with one putt. The best could have roughly 44% one putts for a season. In 2017, seven golfers have more than 44% success rate with one putts. But again, it is worth noting how much easier the start to a season is; these golfers have not faced the toughest challenges like The Players, the Barclays and any major championship.

What seems to be happening is not the next coming of 2000 Tiger, but rather, more golfers improving at roughly the same time at roughly the same rate. There are still milestones yet to be reached, like someone shooting a 62 for one round at a major, or less notably, a golfer carding 254 for a 72-hole tournament. There have been more golfers flirting with breaking these records in recent years, but no one has broken through. Sub-60 rounds are happening at easier courses where scores are lower and competition is not as fierce. But because fields are becoming saturated with similarly talented players, some of the better golfers still have to find other events to play. When they do, the occasional golfer could be poised to achieve that coveted 59.

If you believe talented playing partners and deeper tournament fields naturally make an individual golfer better, then the play we will witness this season could very well be the best we have ever seen. There may not be the lone star of golf, but a hodgepodge of pros who will make 2017 something to behold.