By: Edward Egros

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Who Will Win the 2017 PGA Championship?

Pasted GraphicThis year, the Wanamaker Trophy will be claimed at Quail Hollow Club, the same course that hosts the Wells Fargo Championship (previously the Wachovia Championship). No analysis of this year's PGA Championship would be robust without discussing Rory McIlroy's domination there.

A favorite to win the last major of the season, McIlroy has two victories and once lost in a playoff, in seven appearances there. He also made the cut six of seven times and owns the course record, shooting a 61 in 2015. Also, as I mentioned in a previous article, McIlroy is not only successful in PGA Championships, he is one of the more dominant golfers of any specific event on Tour (even if that major is a hodgepodge of characteristics where no particular abilities stand out). You add to his resume that he has a pair of Top 5 finishes his last two tournaments, and McIlroy seems poised to win for the third time at the PGA Championship.

However, as we have learned with other tournaments,
Strokes Gained statistics have incredible predictive power. When it comes to who has won in North Carolina before, sometimes an already dominant golfer came in and continued his momentum to victory. More recently, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green has become more crucial to success:

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There are two periods when a player needed to rank in the Top 40 in SG: Around-the-Green: 2005-2007 and 2014-2016. This season, the Wells Fargo Championship was played elsewhere so Quail Hollow could be redone for a major. The two important changes here are the removal of trees and the adjusting of the front nine to where the final yardage is shorter but likely more challenging. It's possible these two details make SG: Around-the-Green all the more important.

At this point, the players leading in this statistic are: Ian Poulter, Jason Day, Bill Haas, Pat Perez and Cameron Smith. McIlroy barely cracks the Top 80. Jordan Spieth, another favorite who could complete the career Grand Slam at age 24, is 18th. As for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, another stat with some predictive power, the current leaders are Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia. In terms of skills shown this season, there are several players who are perhaps more suited to win a revamped Quail Hollow than the favorites.

Perhaps the one player that seems to have put it all together, at this point, is Hideki Matsuyama. Fresh off a win at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, he is one of only four players with three wins on Tour this season. He also ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 11th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Lastly, he finished fourth in last year's PGA Championship and has two Top 20 finishes in the last four seasons. In other words, he overcomes the slightly lower statistical rankings than the aforementioned players with overwhelming momentum and overall success with this specific event. While I expect solid games from the favorites, I am picking Hideki Matsuyama to capture his first major.