By: Edward Egros

Jordan

Will Jordan Spieth Win a Major in 2017?

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Leave it up to the U.S. Open’s official twitter handle to place tongue firmly in cheek when it comes Jordan Spieth’s victory at the Australian Open being a sign of things to come: “We all know what came after @JordanSpieth’s first #AusOpenGolf win...” followed by a photo of him holding the major’s championship trophy. In other words, only in the years he won the Australian Open did he win majors.


At the time of publication, no major tournament participants have withdrawn based upon this logic.

There are sounder ways to predict if Jordan Spieth will earn his 3
rd career major this year like momentum. Perhaps surprisingly, in a few ways, Spieth performed better in 2016 than he did in 2015, despite not winning any majors last year. We can illustrate this idea using “Strokes Gained” statistics:

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For those new to “Strokes Gained”, it simply means how many strokes a player gained or lost, compared with the rest of the field, based upon how they played in the four areas: off the tee, approaching the green, around the green and putting. Spieth was actually a better putter in 2016, it was primarily his iron and hybrid clubs letting him down. Fortunately for Spieth, putting is a better predictor for overall success than other phases of the game, so as long as he can continue improving in close range, he has opportunities.

Next, let’s look at each individual major, beginning with the Masters. When looking at a host of variables, there is no better predictor for future performance than past success. It is why I publicly predicted Spieth to win the green jacket last year, and I would have gotten away with it had it not been for that pesky Amen Corner. Still, nobody has played better at Augusta National the last three years than Spieth, so he is in the best position to win there again.

This year’s U.S. Open will be at Erin Hills. It is listed as 7,823 yards, which would be longer than any PGA Tour event played last season. Though Spieth is not one of the longer drivers on Tour, his U.S. Open win was at Chambers Bay, almost as long as this year’s event. Spieth’s advantage was he knew how to putt on the unique fescue greens better than most everyone else. This setup might pose problems.

Royal Birkdale will host The Open, a shorter links course. Perhaps one of the more underrated qualities of Spieth’s is his ability to play links courses well, compared with other Americans. As long as the momentum is there over the summer, Spieth can also contend there.

Finally, the site of the PGA Championship is Quail Hollow Club. It has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship since 2003. Predictably, familiarity with a course has helped Spieth over the years, but he has only played that tournament once, in 2013 when he finished tied for 32
nd. There may simply be too many other golfers with more knowledge of the course for Spieth to have a realistic chance.

Spieth already has a few Top 10 finishes in 2017, including a victory at Pebble Beach. In the last few months, he helped the Americans claim Ryder Cup win, earned an Australian Open victory and is 2nd on the Tour in greens in regulation percentage (one of the areas that was in need of improvement). His Strokes Gained: Putting has not been as strong this year, ranking 37
th, but a few golfers ahead of him have played more tournaments, so it remains too early in the season to suggest there might be a problem.

Because of the deep fields of majors, the odds are better “not” to predict any one golfer to win one of the big four. But for Jordan Spieth, there are enough reasons to believe he can capture another green jacket, win his first Claret Jug, or both.

Subscribers of the Aussie Open theory would agree.

Is Jordan Spieth Struggling?

IMG_3376Even before winning two majors—and nearly two more—in 2015, Jordan Spieth was one of the more popular golfers on the PGA Tour. Then, that popularity soared when the 22-year-old set many records beginning with the phrase: "Youngest golfer to…". But with enormous popularity and early success come high expectations. This year, Spieth has not won a major, only being in contention once out of three times. He also fell out of the top spot in the Official World Golf Rankings and has three fewer victories overall. Given what he did accomplish and how he's performing now, is Jordan Spieth Struggling?

Spieth defended his record and, during his performance at The Open at Royal Troon Golf Club, felt any questions about struggling was "unfair". Per
golflink.com:

"It's been tough given I think [2016 has] been a solid year," said Spieth. "I think if last year had not happened I'd be having a lot of positive questions and instead most of the questions I get are comparing to last year and therefore negative because it's not to the same standard…So that's almost tough to then convince myself you're having a good year when nobody else really…even if you guys think it is, the questions I get make me feel like it's not. So I think that's a bit unfair to me…"

Let's take an analytical look at if Jordan Spieth is struggling by his standards and, if so, by how much. The simplest way is to look at
Strokes Gained rankings and compare last year to this year. What makes Strokes Gained so useful is pointing specifically to the parts of the game a golfer may or may not be excelling at. The following statistics compare how well Spieth has done compared with the rest of the field:

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The numbers above the bars are his rankings on Tour. What also matters here are the following equations:

Off-the-Tee + Approach-the-Green + Around-the-Green = Tee-to-Green

Off-the-Tee + Approach-the-Green + Around-the-Green + Putting = Total

First, Spieth is actually performing better off the tee, but the rest of the field has caught up. Around the green and putting have remained steady or actually improved. The glaring statistic is his approach to the green. This measures all approach shots on par-4 and par-5 holes that are NOT within 30 yards from the edge of the green and includes tee shots on par-3 holes. Spieth has gone from .618 to -.016 (moving from 11th place to 118th). This statistic is further highlighted by looking at the breakdown of his rankings compared with the rest of the field:

  • 163rd in Greens in Regulation Percentage (62.3%)
  • T107th in Approaches from 75-100 yards (17' 10")
  • T109th in Approaches from 100-125 yards (20' 5")
  • T118th in Approaches from 125-150 yards (23' 9")

This information explains the discrepancy in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total. It also explains the bigger discrepancy in tee-to-green versus total, because his skill at putting is included in the total, not tee-to-green. It is also worth noting, Spieth is playing in fewer tournaments this year than last. He played in 25 last season and is only through 16 this season, prior to the PGA Championship.

Let's now look solely at majors and highlight the discrepancy in Spieth's approach game:

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Spieth does not have the same driving accuracy, greens in regulation numbers or sand save percentage that he did in that record-breaking year.

Here is something else to consider. Perhaps one of Spieth's strengths is adapting to links courses. PGA Tour players do not play a lot on these types of courses, and while other golfers can drive the ball farther, this skill is not an advantage on a links course. But Spieth's skills as a putter and around the green do come in handy. In 2015, the U.S. Open was on a links course. Spieth won. This year, the only two domestic tournaments that even come close to those types of conditions are the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Spieth won the latter.

What Spieth said about his game and his year requires clarification. Strokes gained statistics have helped us highlight two important things about Jordan Spieth. First, his approach game has let him down much more so than last year. Second, he is not struggling with any other part of his game and in some ways he has improved. While his fans hope Spieth would have won more tournaments this year, he still has virtually as good a chance as any to capture the final major of the season.