By: Edward Egros

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Need Reasons Not to Pick Spieth at the Byron Nelson?

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Even the youngest of golf fans know how big of a favorite Jordan Spieth is at the Byron Nelson. Vegas odds have the Dallas native as a heavy favorite, he's the only golfer in the Top 20 in every Strokes Gained category except for putting (and putting is a volatile statistic), he's played at the tournament's new home at Trinity Forest a lot and the field is one of the weaker ones on the PGA Tour. In fact, only five of the Top 50 in the world will compete this weekend. Spieth is 3rd in the Official World Golf Rankings, by far the best in the field.

Then again, Spieth was also familiar with the tournament's old home at TPC Four Seasons and he failed to notch a Top 10 finish there. What makes Trinity Forest different is it's a links style, with wind playing a significant factor, no trees on the inside of the course—only outlining the exterior—and unusually large and detailed greens (this course even features one green with two holes). Because no PGA Tour event has been held here until now, there is no historical data to help determine who is likeliest to win. For my analysis, I am replacing course history with other links style courses, and wouldn't you know it? Jordan Spieth shines in this model too, the defending Open Champion with a 4th place finish in 2015 and a U.S. Open championship at Chambers Bay.

Here's one more perspective: as golf analyst
Mark Broadie points out, winners average about 35% of their total strokes gained from their approach shots. At a links style, it is possible that statistic inflates, what with handling the unique greens and unusual winds. Those playing this week who have better Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green numbers than Spieth are Scott Piercy and Sergio Garcia, who has handled other Texas tournaments well. There are a few players who could spoil Spieth's first win at this tournament, but it's hard to find them.

Here are my daily fantasy teams:

Jordan Spieth
Sergio Garcia
Robert Streb
J.J. Spaun
Hunter Mahan
Robert Garrigus

Adam Scott
Marc Leishman
Rory Sabbatini
Kevin Na
Scott Piercy
Bill Haas