By: Edward Egros

Masters

Predicting the Masters

IMG_3374Jordan Spieth is and should be one of the favorites to win the Masters. He's had two starts at Augusta National, finished tied for second in 2014 and won it in 2015. He also has a PGA Tour victory in 2016, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

But, the PGA Tour's website is predicting someone different. Using an analytic formula, the site says
Phil Mickelson will win the green jacket. There are three variables used: the overall rankings for driving distance, putting and scrambling. Mickelson has the best ranking when combining all three variables, and by a lot. The second-place golfer, Jason Day, is 38 "points" lower than Mickelson but only ten points better than third and fourth place (Marc Leishman and Rickie Fowler, respectively). If this formula is completely accurate, Spieth will finish 7th.

Though the simplicity of the formula can be appreciated, any Masters prediction should include past performances. This variable is highly predictive. It explains why Fred Couples finished in the Top 20 in five of the last six years, even though he has played on the Champions Tour since 2010. It might also explain why the Masters remains the only major championship Rory McIlroy has yet to win (he has finished 8th or better the last two times at Augusta National).

Even when adding this variable, it does not take away from the argument for Mickelson. After all, he has won a pair of green jackets and finished tied 2nd in 2015, four strokes behind Spieth. It is also worth noting, of the 48 different golfers who have won the Masters, 17 won it multiple times (35.4%). Look for Mickelson, Spieth or Adam Scott to finish atop Sunday's leaderboard.