By: Edward Egros

Patrick

One Personal Note About the Masters

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It seemed like Sunday offered the kind of drama befitting Jim Nantz's description: "the most anticipated Masters…in our lifetime". Jordan Spieth, a former winner capable of dominating Augusta at any moment, nearly shot a course record to complete what would have been the biggest comeback leading into the final round in Masters history. Patrick Reed, who began Sunday with a three-stroke advantage, stayed around his starting score while those nearest to him were crumbling. For a few moments, it seemed like Spieth was going to catch Reed and fulfill the mantra that anything is possible at golf's first major.

Emotions are one thing, statistics are another.

DataGolf calculated its own odds for who would win the Masters, stroke-by-stroke. Even as Jordan Spieth trimmed his deficit with each passing birdie, Patrick Reed remained a sizable favorite for a number of reasons. First, no one has ever shot a 62 at the Masters before; but a few have shot a 63 and a few more have carded a 64. Expecting something unprecedented should be statistically small. But even if Spieth had pulled off that feat and we assume nothing else would have changed in terms of Reed's game, a course record would have only tied Reed, so nothing gives Spieth an advantage to win.

Second, as Spieth was approaching the end of his round, Reed had several holes remaining. Though he was in the middle of Amen Corner which historically can be treacherous,
when Reed's ball sat up on the slope after his approach on the 13th hole, avoiding the water altogether, Reed avoided any major disaster that would have given Spieth an opportunity. Then, Reed had easier holes where he could card more birdies, including the Par-5 15th, where he even scored an eagle the day before.

Lastly, per ShotLink, Reed was already 24th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 41st in One-Putt Percentage, so nothing suggested one aspect of his game could cause a collapse, he would probably remain steady at worst—which is exactly what happened—Reed gained one shot en route to his first major championship.

There may have been wishful thinking by many Spieth would have completed the comeback, whether that come from fans of his, haters of Reed or consumers of incredible storylines. Often those emotions can have us thinking irrationally, that someone can do something that unprecedented. But those stoic statistics reminded us just how much of a longshot Spieth was to win, no matter how thrilling he made it seem. It's not that analytics should prevent us from enjoying the spectacle, but it should put in context what we are witnessing, as it might deceive us.