By: Edward Egros

rangers

No Range for the Texas Rangers

IMG_5937It's hard not to catch shortstop Elvis Andrus smiling these days. His Texas Rangers go into the postseason with home-field advantage all the way through the World Series—while finishing one victory shy of a franchise record for most wins in a season—and boasting the most wins at home in the American League. Elvis himself finished the regular-season as a .302/.362/.439 hitter. And yet, a few sabermetricians have spoken out, saying not only shouldn't the Rangers be one of the favorites to win the World Series, their success is virtually fraudulent.

It involves
Pythagorean Expectation. This is the often-cited formula baseball guru Bill James invented to estimate how many wins a team "should" have based upon how many runs they scored and allowed. Since it became commonplace, the formula has worked quite well explaining why teams are thriving and struggling. Even this season, the formula explains all but a handful of wins or losses for every MLB team. The one team the formula has done the poorest job with, is the Texas Rangers.

For much of the season, this team's Pythagorean W-L hovered around .500. The Rangers finished 13 games above what was expected, at 95-67. Why? The Rangers were 36-11 in one-run games (the .766 winning percentage is a record in modern baseball). They were also 18-24 in games decided by 5+ runs. In other words, the Rangers won a lot of close games and lost a lot of blowouts.

This large of a discrepancy is unprecedented in the last decade for the Rangers:

Pasted Graphic

The Rangers have performed roughly what was expected, given their runs scored and allowed. But the last two years this team has over-performed. It might be a coincidence those were the two years Jeff Banister has been the manager of the Rangers, but maybe not. Banister has a history of evaluating players and looking at skills during blowouts. He is certainly not the only manager to have this approach, but it is possible he takes it to the next level. Two years is not sufficient data to make such a conclusion, but it is a noteworthy trend to consider.

So how accurate is this formula when predicting if the Rangers will win the World Series? Not very. Since 1969,
11 teams out of 47 had the best Pythagorean Expected record and went on to win the World Series. In fact, the likelihood has decreased since the postseason expanded. Many conclude the postseason is almost impossible to predict, though there are the trends to consider that are helpful. Most notably, "Small ball" seems to be a more successful approach in the postseason than the regular-season. Among teams in the postseason, the Rangers rank 3rd in stolen bases, 5th in sacrifice flies and 3rd in hit by pitch (they are however last in walks and almost last in sacrifice hits).

If you believe the Rangers will eventually regress to the mean given this disparity, it has not happened through 162 games, so statistically nothing suggests this trend will automatically change after another 19 games. In a way, the Texas Rangers have just as good a chance to win the franchise's first world championship as anybody, and that smile from Elvis Andrus will be even wider.