By: Edward Egros

soccer

World Cup Quarterfinals

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Eight teams remain in contention for the World Cup. Our model went 5-3 predicting "Round of 16" matches. While many were predictable, few saw Russia upsetting Spain; the other two we missed (Uruguay beating Portugal and Sweden knocking off Switzerland) were essentially toss-ups. So far, we are quite pleased with our results.

Our next step is to predict Quarterfinal matches, and if you cannot wait for our social media posts or our reveals on Good Day, here they are:

Brazil defeats Belgium (76.4%)
Russia defeats Croatia (50.7%)
England defeats Sweden (58.2%)
France defeats Uruguay (67.8%)

World Cup Predictions

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Once again, I'll begin this post by apologizing for so few updates in the last several weeks. However, I have been diligent with analytical research; and now I can share with you one of these projects, and it pertains to the World Cup.

In collaboration with students from Southern Methodist University, we have devised a model that predicts the outcome of every match. The data used includes outcomes of international matches between national teams dating back to 2003 (this does not include friendlies), the location of where they were played, what tournament that match was a part of, the distance each country had to travel to play that match and the total market value of each team, meaning the sum of each professional contract for each player belonging to that team.

Since the start of the tournament, I have reported these results on Fox 4, while also providing context of how the tournament is unfolding, using analytical tools. You can see these videos both at the bottom of the home page
and on my YouTube page.

Lastly, I have assembled all of the data and other files onto a Github page so you can follow along with what we have been doing.
Click here for that information.

As always, I would appreciate feedback you can offer. You can also share your own models by clicking the link: "Contact Edward".