By: Edward Egros

world

Entering the Daily Fantasy Zone

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This adventurous soul of a webmaster is embarking on a new quest: Daily Fantasy Golf. Over at least the next few weeks, I will submit two teams of six players to a Daily Fantasy Golf website in the hopes of determining if my models have enough predictive power to finish "in the money" with enough frequency to make a profit. Though I am not spending any money of significance, I am keeping track of where each team finishes and what prizes come about.

If you are not familiar with Daily Fantasy Golf, each user has $50,000 to spend on six golfers competing in that week's tournament. Each golfer has a price and it is up to the user to find the best combination of golfers with the best finishing order at the end of the final round, all while not exceeding that $50,000 limit.

I began with the Genesis Open, and though one of my teams had all six players make the cut, no money was earned. Then I assembled teams for the Honda Classic, focusing primarily on Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. One team of Justin Thomas, Alex Noren and others did finish "in the green". Winners of this event in the past have excelled in those statistics.

This week, the scene is the WGC-Mexico Championship. This tournament proves to be particularly tricky to predict if only because this is just the second time the World Golf Championships have been to Club de Golf Chapultepec. The elevation is high, the air is thin, the length is only 7,330 yards but heavy hitters like Dustin Johnson were successful last year. With a combination of players with high finishes the last few weeks, those excelling with their iron shots (proximity to the hole) and those who are dominant in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, here are my teams:

Justin Thomas
Kevin Chappell
Francesco Molinari
Brendan Steele
Xander Schauffele
Webb Simpson

Tommy Fleetwood
Chez Reavie
Paul Casey
Alex Noren
Patton Kizzire
Charley Hoffman

Go Cubs Go

Pasted GraphicIn just a few days, Wrigley Field's iconic scoreboard will showcase a World Series for the first time in more than seven decades. A franchise with questionable management and horrible luck has finally come within four wins of its first world championship in more than a century.

The Cubs have fielded formidable teams that have made the postseason, but never have they won the NLCS until this year. Often postseason baseball can be so unpredictable that it is difficult to explain why the Cubs could not reach the World Series until now. But there are some trends that predict success in playoff baseball, that does not have as great an impact in regular-season baseball.

While I have written a paper about this and have applied those lessons to the Texas Rangers in a previous post, I would like to look at alternative research. In the book "Baseball Between the Numbers", three qualities are listed that best determine postseason success:

  • Pitcher Strikeout Rate
  • Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA)
  • Closer Expected Wins Over Replacement Pitcher (WXRL)

The Cubs finished 3rd in the majors in strikeout percentage and strikeouts per nine innings (the Dodgers finished first in both categories, the team Chicago beat in the NLCS). Fangraphs uses a metric called
Ultimate Zone Rating to calculate fielding, and listed the Cubs as the best fielding team this season. Lastly, the Cubs finished 19th in reliever Wins Above Replacement, but keep in mind, the team traded for Aroldis Chapman late in the season.

It is also worth nothing, the Indians had high rankings in all three of these categories as well (5th, 4th and 7th, respectively). While the matchup should make for a fantastic World Series, given how the Cubs have properly built this team for a postseason run, it should not come as a surprise if they can end this 108-year streak.